THM Revenue Intelligence · Deep Research · Vintage Park
A full triangulation across nine data points: STR actuals, 168 rate-variance reports, 57 of HOUZN's own Top 30 account reports, both hotels' revenue-strategy packets, the city ledger, and public account research. The headline reverses the obvious story.
HOUZN trails HOUZV by +27% on RevPAR (73.71 vs 93.83 in 2025), behind on both occupancy (65.3% vs 79.8%) and realized ADR ($112.56 vs $121.20). That part held up under the deep dig (source: data.json, HOUZN STR + HOUZV flash actuals).
What reversed: HOUZN is not under-pricing. It posts higher rates than HOUZV on 78 to 83% of forward nights, by $8 to $12 (source: houzn_smart_findings.md). It loses the money downstream, through a growing fixed-discount block, a collapsed group book backfilled cheap, low-rate contractor crews, and no premium tier. HOUZV wins by holding floors and filling late at rate on a clean transient base, not by selling higher. The fix is mix and discipline, not the rate card.
RevPAR is occupancy times ADR. HOUZV beat HOUZN all 12 months. Both beat the weak end of the comp set, but HOUZN sits mid-pack while HOUZV leads it (source: data.json; HOUZV STAR rank 2 of 7).
| Month | HOUZN occ | HOUZV occ | HOUZN ADR | HOUZV ADR | HOUZN RevPAR | HOUZV RevPAR | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 54% | 67% | $103 | $115 | $56 | $78 | +40% |
| Feb | 76% | 86% | $116 | $124 | $88 | $107 | +21% |
| Mar | 76% | 84% | $110 | $124 | $83 | $105 | +26% |
| Apr | 73% | 78% | $112 | $122 | $82 | $96 | +17% |
| May | 66% | 83% | $115 | $123 | $75 | $102 | +36% |
| Jun | 68% | 87% | $113 | $121 | $76 | $105 | +38% |
| Jul | 68% | 77% | $118 | $120 | $80 | $93 | +16% |
| Aug | 49% | 89% | $110 | $114 | $53 | $84 | +58% |
| Sep | 62% | 68% | $111 | $118 | $69 | $94 | +37% |
| Oct | 73% | 82% | $119 | $124 | $86 | $91 | +5% |
| Nov | 65% | 84% | $113 | $125 | $73 | $82 | +12% |
| Dec | 56% | 70% | $112 | $124 | $63 | $90 | +44% |
| 2025 avg | 65% | 80% | $113 | $121 | $74 | $94 | +27% |
The same report type as HOUZV's Rank of 7. Lower is better; green is top of the set. HOUZV sits inside this same 9-hotel set and ranks above HOUZN (source: HOUZN_STR_2025-12.xlsx, Comp tab).
| Rank of 9 | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| ADR | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| RevPAR | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
You asked which data points actually help triangulate. Here is the case for each, what it can prove, and the key finding. The three marked "spine" carry the diagnosis; the rest corroborate or add the names.
| Data point | Source | What it triangulates | Key finding |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOUZN monthly STR + HOUZV month-end Flash | data.json (12 mo 2025 + 16 flash) | Realized occupancy, ADR, RevPAR for both, apples to apples | THE GAP. HOUZN $73.71 RevPAR vs HOUZV $93.83 (+27%), behind on both levers, every month |
| HOUZN SMART Comp Shops | houzn_smart_findings.md (3 packets) | HOUZN posted rate vs HOUZV posted rate, forward | HOUZN posts HIGHER than HOUZV by $8 to $12 on 78 to 83% of nights. The loss is realized-rate leakage, not weak pricing |
| HOUZV Strategy Recaps, 12M tab | houzv_segment_trends.md (8 monthly) | HOUZV true segment mix by official taxonomy | Near-pure transient, 78 to 89%. Retail ~918 rn/mo at $148 is the rate engine; group thin (11 to 22%); contract negligible |
| HOUZV Recap notes + RS+D360 | houzv_segment_trends.md, houzv_booking_window_pace.md (19 recaps) | Doctrine, rate floors, booking pace, events, named groups | Holds floors ($134/$139/$200/$219), fills LATE at rate (34 to 38% at 30 days out, finishes 71 to 77%). Named SMERF/sports groups + FIFA codified |
| HOUZV Rate Variance corpus | houzv_ratevar_findings.md (168 reports, 24,835 stays) | Guest names banked to rate codes; repeat travelers, long-stays, group blocks | Member+RACK is ~43% of nights (the ceiling). Repeat guests + crews + G-EAT/RACKX2 blocks exist but are a small share (daily snapshots over-weight long stays) |
| HOUZV city ledger / AR | houzv_accounts.md (21 NA + 4 journals) | Named corporate direct-bill accounts | NONE. Loyalty/award dominated; one stale insurance account (Alacrity). HOUZV is not corporate-account driven |
| HOUZN Top 30 Reports | houzn_top30.md (57 reports) | HOUZN's own named accounts and groups | WHERE THEY WORK. Energy + industrial contractor crews (Oceaneering, INNIO, Osmose, Everline, Arcxis...) at low ADR; episodic sports/wedding groups |
| HOUZN SMART segment + Confidential | houzn_smart_findings.md | HOUZN forward mix; Marriott rate-share opt-in status | Fixed Discounts +150 rooms YoY (the leak); Special Corporate -40 and Government -48 YoY (premium shrinking). Confidential tabs BLANK: not opted into rate-sharing |
| Account web research | account_intel.md (28 orgs) | Sector and NW-Houston nexus of each named account | Two target HQs in HOUZN's own zip 77070 (Arcxis, Venterra). CLC Lodging is the biggest re-rate lever. Submarket = energy/industrial weekday + youth-sports weekend |
Most of the gap is occupancy, not rate. HOUZV sells about 104 rooms a night against HOUZN's 91, roughly 13 more rooms every night with 9 fewer rooms to sell (data.json). The mix below is in room nights per month, each hotel in its own chain's segment categories. Read it down the columns: HOUZV out-produces HOUZN in retail, group, and especially loyalty, while HOUZN's corporate is split across Special Corporate and the BAR-tied bucket rather than missing.
HOUZV is the only Hyatt within roughly a 10 mile radius (the nearest other Hyatt Place is the Cy-Fair property out on US-290). A World of Hyatt member in Vintage Park has no other Hyatt to choose, so HOUZV is the captive Hyatt and it can hold rate while occupancy sticks. HOUZN sits in the opposite position: it is one of about five Marriott-brand hotels inside a one mile radius (Courtyard, Residence Inn, Element, TownePlace, plus SpringHill itself). A Bonvoy member shops across all of them, so if HOUZN holds rate while a sister Marriott does not, it loses the room to the sister Marriott, not to the Hyatt. That is the real reason HOUZN leans on discount and group to fill, and why "hold rate like HOUZV" is the wrong prescription.
HOUZN's realistic levers are mix and product, not naked rate: grow the member and retail share where its ADR already matches HOUZV, trim the deepest discount and the CLC drag where it does not cost occupancy, build a premium and suite tier the neighboring select-service Marriotts may not have, own the extended-stay crew demand at direct rates, and apply rate discipline selectively on compression and event dates where demand is captive, not across the board.
HOUZN is professionally managed (Marriott RMAS, weekly call, real rate floors, working FIFA). The gap is execution emphasis, sourced to strategy_compare.md and houzn_smart_findings.md.
HOUZV defends a $200 suite floor and $219 ceiling. HOUZN's ladder tops at ~$139 transient, $169 to $199 only on event dates. The top of the rate ladder is unbuilt.
Posts high, realizes low. A growing Fixed-Discount block (+150 rooms YoY) plus Bonvoy ($39), Explore/MEO ($60) and wholesale ($97) drag blended ADR below HOUZV's.
Group on the books down 299 rooms YoY, refilled at $102 to $122 plus CLC crews at ~$65 to $70. HOUZV holds group ADR with wash discipline.
HOUZV's World Cup monetization is codified (CXL policy, sports-group quote rule). HOUZN was still base-building and validating must-stay hurdles after an April PMS cutover.
HOUZV runs a multi-person command center with D360. HOUZN runs one RMAS advisor, the SMART Confidential rate-share tabs are blank (not opted in), through a mid-cycle PMS migration.
HOUZN posts $8 to $12 above HOUZV but realizes $9 below. That spread is gaps 1 to 3. Close them and HOUZN's rate-card lead converts to real RevPAR.
From 57 of HOUZN's own Top 30 account reports (Feb to Apr 2026) plus public research (houzn_top30.md, account_intel.md). NW Houston / 77070 is the metro's energy and industrial-build weekday corridor, wrapped in a youth-sports and SMERF weekend layer. HOUZN already HAS this base; it is under-rating it.
Rate codes banked against the rooms using them, grouped into families. HOUZV from 168 rate-variance reports (24,835 stays, houzv_ratevar_findings.md); HOUZN from its own 57 rate-variance reports (2,770 rows, houzn_guest_master.csv). Both are rate-variance rosters, so read shares as mix shape. Families are interpretive groupings by code structure.
HOUZV books zero CLC across 24,835 stays. HOUZN runs CLC as a standing block: CLC and Osmose-CLC appear in 41 of 57 rate-variance and 39 of 57 Top 30 reports at $65 to $72 a night, with one Osmose-CLC block reaching ~111 room-nights in a single month at $68 (houzn_top30.md, houzn_data/). HOUZV proves the same crew demand pays $116 to $119 through direct contracts (RACKX2, G-EAT).
Can HOUZN just raise the CLC rate 50%? No, and the earlier $42K projection is withdrawn. CLC/Corpay leverages 20M-plus room-nights a year to lock deep network rates, and crews travel on a fixed per-diem Trip Card; price above the per-diem and the account routes the crew to another hotel (corpaylodging.com). The realistic plan is mix and channel, not a unit-rate hike:
Net: protect peak inventory now with displacement controls, and move crew demand off the lowest-rate channel over time. The dollar prize is real but it comes from mix and channel discipline, not from re-pricing a per-diem account that would simply leave.
Two moves: re-rate the base HOUZN already has, and solicit the groups HOUZV already wins. Sourced to account_intel.md; verify booking entities flagged below before acting.
| Tier | Target | What they are | NW Houston nexus | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RE-RATE | Arcxis | Residential inspection / engineering | HQ 19450 SH-249 Ste 300, 77070 (HOUZN's zip) | Re-rate: convert from long-stay rate to a managed corporate BAR LNR |
| RE-RATE | Venterra Realty | Multifamily owner / operator | Office 20333 Hwy 249 Ste 650, 77070; $50M Cypress build underway | Grow: HQ travel + construction overflow, negotiated account |
| RE-RATE | CLC Lodging / Corpay | Crew-lodging broker (16.7M room nights/yr) | Channel routing Osmose and other crews at deep discount | Re-rate the ceiling: audit HOUZN crew nights via CLC, renegotiate up |
| GROW | INNIO Waukesha | Gas-compression engines, ~9,000 to service | NA office 8860 Fallbrook Dr, 77064 | Re-rate rotating field-service tech crews to a fair LNR |
| GROW | Oceaneering Intl | Offshore energy services | HQ NW Sam Houston Pkwy W (minutes from 77070) | Grow: HQ visitors/vendors, negotiated BAR LNR |
| GROW | Osmose Utilities | Utility pole inspection crews | Mobile crews on CenterPoint / co-op lines | Re-rate recurring long-stay crew off legacy low rate |
| GROW | ARM Energy | Midstream / pipeline | Waller County (US-290 zone) build-out | Grow: tie rate to pipeline construction calendar |
| SOLICIT | Albion Hurricanes FC | Youth soccer, 5,000+ players, Cypress campus | Solicit recurring weekend tournament blocks | |
| SOLICIT | NCA All-Star Nationals | Cheer, locked 3-yr Houston contract 2026-28, ~45k spectators | Pre-sell NW overflow blocks at event-premium rate | |
| SOLICIT | GYC Planners | Houston tournament-housing broker (channel) | Get on their preferred-hotel list to win youth-sports volume | |
| SOLICIT | Alacrity Solutions | Insurance restoration (ALE + CAT crews) | Get on their managed-housing vendor list | |
| SOLICIT | HOUZV SMERF book | Concordia Lutheran, Lamb of God, weddings | Solicit the local school/church/wedding blocks HOUZV already wins | |
HOUZN's industrial crews (Osmose and others) route through CLC Lodging at roughly $65 to $70 a night. CLC moves 16.7M room-nights a year, so the rate is negotiable as a ceiling, not a fixed floor. Auditing how many HOUZN nights flow through CLC and renegotiating that ceiling up is likely the fastest realized-ADR win available.
Add an everyday suite floor and ceiling so high-demand nights have somewhere to go above $139.
Roll back the +150-room fixed-discount growth; convert volume to BAR and negotiated where demand allows.
Win back the 299 lost rooms with disciplined ADR; chase AHFC, NCA overflow, and HOUZV's SMERF book via GYC.
Arcxis and Venterra (both in 77070), INNIO, Oceaneering, and the CLC ceiling. Move legacy crew rates toward market.
Adopt HOUZV's CXL policy and sports-group quote rule before the summer window closes.
Turn on Marriott rate-share so the SMART Confidential tabs populate and HOUZN gains negotiated-rate visibility.